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Predictable & Skewed Returns

Date14 Dec 2015

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There has been a lot of research recently that investigates the link between stock returns and higher moments of the return distribution, specifically the skewness of returns. This link, unfortunately, is frequently ignored by more standard measures of market risk and volatility. Skewness, if you’ll recall, measures the asymmetry of a distribution. In terms of...

When an Expense Becomes a Wise Investment Choice

Date14 Dec 2015

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Ask someone how they invest, and you’ll probably get a pretty standard answer involving stocks, bonds and maybe some real estate or cash. But rarely will people mention something that is even more important: their investments in human capital. They don’t talk about it because human capital investments can look a lot like any other...

The Federal Reserve and Rising Rates

Date14 Dec 2015

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With the recent spate of positive economic news, highlighted by the strong jobs numbers for both October and November, all signs point toward the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds target rate 25 basis points from 0–0.25 percent to 0.25–0.50 percent. Based on federal funds futures, the market is assigning a roughly 76 percent probability...

Let Go of Irrational Fears

Date14 Dec 2015

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When we talk about the chances of something bad happening, people tend to fall into three general groups. The Numbers Don’t Matter No matter the odds, this group dismisses the statistics. People insist they can trust their gut. I suspect this group buys lottery tickets every week. The Odds Look Great This group focuses on...

Ignore Liquidity At Your Peril

Date14 Dec 2015

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Liquidity is valuable to investors. Therefore, investors demand higher expected returns for less liquid stocks. The liquidity of an asset market refers to the ability of investors to buy and sell significant quantities of that asset, quickly, at low cost and without a major price concession. Thus, liquidity risk can be thought of as the...

The Market Humbles Junk Bond Fund Managers

Date14 Dec 2015

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Do you remember the scene from It’s A Wonderful Life—only the best holiday movie ever—when George and Mary Bailey are cruising out of Bedford Falls on their well-earned honeymoon, only to notice a literal run on the banks (including the Bailey Savings and Loan, which George reluctantly operates)? Well, as Mark Twain is attributed as...

A Game You Shouldn’t Play

Date14 Dec 2015

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It seems like almost every week a new study appears to debunk the myth of active management. This week was no exception. Robin Powell, a U.K.-based journalist and financial blogger, discussed a recent study that covered 561 U.K.-based stock funds between 1998 and 2008. The study’s findings were consistent with similar research done on funds...

Wall Street Translation: Jason Zweig’s “The Devil’s Financial Dictionary”

Date14 Dec 2015

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Jane Bryant Quinn, a highly regarded and nationally syndicated columnist, once called much of the output of Wall Street and the trade publications that cover financial markets “investment porn.” She summed it up this way: “Americans are indulging themselves in investment porn. Shameless stories about performance tickle our prurient financial interest.” The roller-coaster swing of...

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