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Learning Center

Buffett’s Basketball Billion by Jim Whiddon

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March has truly gone mad as the inimitable Warren Buffett has teamed up with Quicken Loans to produce perhaps one of the most brilliant marketing boondoggles and at the same time one of the most bogus prize offers ever devised. And it will almost certainly work beautifully with no one to claim the reward. The...

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Grit is Critical to Your Success by Dan Solin

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Abraham Lincoln first ran for the Illinois General Assembly in 1832. He lost. Subsequently, he lost a race for the House of Representatives and two races for the Senate. The love of his life died in 1835. He had a nervous breakdown in 1836. He campaigned for a vice-presidential nomination and lost. He persevered and,...

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Changing Lanes by Neal Merbaum

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“My name is Neal, and I’m a lane changer. It’s been two weeks since I changed lanes — and that’s only because it’s been two weeks since I was on the highway!” If there were an organization similar to Alcoholics Anonymous for chronic lane changers, I would join. I know I have a problem, but...

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Asset Allocation Guide: U.S. vs. International Equity

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In our ongoing series looking at asset allocation issues, we’ve already covered some essentials, namely, how to analyze your ability, willingness and need to take risk — and what do when one or more of those factors conflict. Figuring out where you fit along the risk spectrum will help you figure how much of your portfolio to put into stocks. Now,...

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Expected Stock Returns Around the Globe

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In order to rationally develop an investment plan you need to estimate long-term returns for the asset classes in which to invest – without doing so you cannot determine how much to allocate to risky stocks and how much to safer bonds. When estimating returns we know that current valuations provide valuable information. As good...

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Are Demographics Really Destiny?

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I recently came across an article on Seeking Alpha by The Statistical Investor entitled “Demographics Are Destiny: World Population Trends“. The article begins: “As they say, demographics is destiny. Just ask Japan. The longer your investment horizon, the more exposed you are to demographic trends.” The author continues with what we might call “conventional wisdom”...

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Volatility & Corrosive Contango

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  The presence of regularly occurring anomalies in conventional economic theory led to the development of the field of behavioral finance, and the volatility anomaly is one that deserves some special attention.   Anomalies directly violate modern financial and economic theories, which assume rational and logical behavior. We now have a laundry list of anomalies, including...

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Dividends and Behavioral Econ

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It’s long been known that many investors have a preference for cash dividends. But from the perspective of classical financial theory, this behavior is an anomaly. Here’s why. It’s perplexing behavior because before taking into consideration what are referred to as “frictions” such as transaction costs and taxes, dividends and capital gains should be perfect...

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