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October 27, 2014

3 reasons to avoid ETFs: Advisor

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Exchange-traded funds—commonly referred to as ETFs—are all the rage. While there are several excellent reasons to use an ETF over the seemingly archaic traditional mutual fund, they are not a universally preferable solution. First, to be fair, let’s review a...

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Past Returns No Sign Of Future

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Earlier this week, we discussed some of the academic literature surrounding historical versus current valuations as a metric for forecasting future returns. We learned that because there’s so much variation over time in the equity risk premium, there isn’t any...

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Assessing Expected Returns

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At a recent meeting with a nonprofit organization, my firm was asked to explain why we don’t consider historical stock returns the best estimator of future returns. They wanted to understand why we instead rely on our own forecasts. Their...

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